Sergio Abranches
For the third consecutive year Brazilian sugarcane harvests will be affected by adverse climatic factors. The latest estimates from the producers’ association, UNICA, is that it will be 8.4% smaller for the season 2011-2012. Over the last three years demand for sugar has been very strong and prices even higher than ethanol’s. As a result, producers have been calibrating their production mix to yield more sugar than alcohol. More »
Sergio Abranches
Moving from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy entails replacing the global energy and industrial high-carbon infrastructure over the next decades. UN’s recent Economic and Social Survey 2011 – The Great Green Technological Transformation estimates replacement costs at $15-$20 trillion, or between one quarter and one third of global income. More »
A scenario of sustained high oil prices can no longer be discarded. If the uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East continue to spread to other countries over the next months, it is quite likely that oil prices will keep high, and may even reach new record heights. Not an unlikely development, particularly if protesters in Libya succeed in overthrowing Gaddafi. But instability will hardly stop with the overthrow of dictatorial rulers. Governance-building is a long process, with likely surges of instability. Attending the demands for jobs and income will not be easy. The global economy has not fully recovered yet, and the region’s troubled local economies need sweeping reforms before they can yield satisfactory results. Frustration of demands can refuel discontent and lead to new waves of instability. More »
Sergio Abranches
The Gulf of Mexico oil spill tells us a story of disregard for the risk of deep sea oil extraction, and bad risk governance. It reflects an overall failure to account for risk of environmental damage and the associated economic losses of deep sea oil drilling and extraction projects. More »
Sergio Abranches
Over the last year and a half Chinese state-owned oil and petrochemical companies have committed near $160 billion to buy oil, and sand oil projects around the world, or to secure exclusive provision of oil from foreign producers. The Chinese thirst for oil knows no geopolitical constraints, no frontiers, no ideological impediments. Brazil is losing touch with reality.
